Ocean temperatures have surged across the equatorial Pacific, prompting forecasters to warn that the developing El Niño could rank among the strongest events measured since 1950. The consequences may stretch from American winter storms to global food production and wildlife losses in the Galápagos.

Published at 6:38 p.m. Eastern Time

El Niño has entered a more dangerous phase, and the latest measurements suggest the world may be watching one of the most powerful Pacific climate events in modern history.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said on September 10 that El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90 percent chance of becoming a “very strong” event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026 to 2027.

More strikingly, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center calculated a 75 percent chance that the event could reach historic intensity between October and December. At that level, it would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events in NOAA’s records dating to 1950.

That forecast is the basis for a dramatic term now appearing in news coverage and public conversation: “Super El Niño.”

The phrase is not an official meteorological category. NOAA and the World Meteorological Organization describe the developing system as a very strong El Niño. But the “super” label communicates something important, provided it is used carefully. This is no longer an ordinary warming of the tropical Pacific. The event has reached a magnitude that could significantly alter weather probabilities across much of the world.

It does not mean every city will experience a disaster. It does not mean every storm, drought or heat wave during the coming year can be blamed on El Niño. It means the background climate pattern is becoming unusually powerful, increasing the chances of disruptive weather in regions with well-established El Niño connections.

In practical terms, the Pacific has loaded the climate dice.

The measurements behind the warning

El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, commonly called ENSO. It develops when the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean become unusually warm and interact with the atmosphere above them.

According to the September 10 NOAA Climate Prediction Center discussion, sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeded 3 degrees Celsius in portions of the eastern equatorial Pacific.

The Niño 3.4 region, one of the primary areas scientists monitor, reached 1.8 degrees Celsius above average. The Niño 3 region reached 2.5 degrees above average, while the Niño 1+2 region near the South American coast climbed to 3.4 degrees above average.

Even more heat is present below the surface. NOAA reported widespread subsurface temperature anomalies exceeding 10 degrees Celsius.

That deeper reservoir is significant because subsurface heat can rise and help maintain warm conditions at the ocean surface. The atmosphere is also responding. NOAA observed changes in tropical winds, cloud development and rainfall that confirm the ocean and atmosphere are now working together as a coupled El Niño system.

“This is a strengthening El Niño,” NOAA concluded, not merely an isolated pocket of warm ocean water.

The World Meteorological Organization has issued a similar warning. Its September outlook said El Niño is firmly established and expected to become very strong, with major implications for rainfall and temperature patterns into 2027.

Is it officially a “Super El Niño”?

No international weather agency maintains a formal category called Super El Niño.

Scientists generally classify El Niño events as weak, moderate, strong or very strong based on sustained ocean temperature anomalies and the behavior of the atmosphere. “Super El Niño” is an informal term often applied when warming in a key Pacific monitoring region reaches or exceeds approximately 2 degrees Celsius.

The expression has previously been used for the powerful events of 1982 to 1983, 1997 to 1998 and 2015 to 2016.

The difference is more than technical.

Calling an event “super” can encourage people to assume every expected effect will also be extreme. A very strong El Niño does make familiar climate patterns more likely, but local weather still depends on many interacting forces. Those include the position of the jet stream, Arctic conditions, ocean temperatures outside the Pacific and shorter atmospheric cycles that can redirect storms.

A powerful El Niño can produce a wet winter in one part of a state and leave another area below normal. It can raise the seasonal temperature average while still allowing a short but severe cold outbreak.

NOAA makes that uncertainty explicit. The agency says an event of this magnitude creates a greater chance of recognizable El Niño impacts, but those impacts are not guaranteed.

The scientifically responsible message is therefore more nuanced than the headline. El Niño has reached exceptional strength, but it remains a probability shifter, not a weather machine with one predetermined outcome.

What it could mean for the United States

El Niño usually exerts its strongest influence on the United States during late fall and winter.

It often strengthens and redirects the subtropical jet stream across the southern part of the country. That can increase the frequency of storms affecting California, the Southwest, the Gulf Coast and the Southeast.

Across the northern United States, El Niño winters tend to be warmer than average, especially in parts of the Pacific Northwest, northern Plains, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.

The southern tier may receive more precipitation, while portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies may experience warmer and drier conditions.

These broad patterns create several areas of concern.

California could face atmospheric rivers, urban flooding, overwhelmed drainage systems and landslides. Areas burned by wildfires are particularly vulnerable because heavy rain can send mud, rocks and burned debris downhill with little warning.

However, the 2015 to 2016 event demonstrated why caution is necessary. That El Niño was among the strongest on record, yet rainfall did not unfold exactly as many Californians expected. Parts of the state received less precipitation than anticipated.

In the Pacific Northwest, the concern may be insufficient mountain snow. Warmer storms can deliver rain instead of snow at higher elevations, reducing the natural water reserve that normally melts into streams and reservoirs during spring and summer.

A rainy winter is therefore not automatically a water-secure winter. What falls, where it falls and whether it arrives as rain or snow can be just as important as the total amount of precipitation.

A complicated signal for hurricanes

El Niño also changes conditions over the Atlantic Ocean.

The pattern typically increases vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic. Wind shear can pull at a developing storm from different directions and disrupt the organized circulation required for a tropical cyclone to strengthen.

For that reason, El Niño is often associated with fewer Atlantic hurricanes.

But fewer storms do not equal zero danger.

A quieter Atlantic season can still produce a catastrophic landfall. Exceptionally warm ocean water can also provide additional fuel for storms that survive the stronger wind shear.

In the central and eastern Pacific, El Niño may create more favorable conditions for tropical cyclone activity. The location of the risk can shift even if the total global number of storms does not change dramatically.

El Niño should therefore be viewed as a redistribution of hurricane probabilities, not as protection from hurricanes.

Wildlife in the Galápagos faces an immediate threat

The consequences are already extending into some of the world’s most sensitive ecosystems.

Scientists in Ecuador are preparing for potentially severe damage in the Galápagos Islands, where marine animals depend on cold, nutrient-rich water rising from below the ocean surface.

That process, called upwelling, supports plankton and small fish. Those organisms form the base of a food web that sustains sea lions, Galápagos penguins, marine iguanas, blue-footed boobies and other species.

During a powerful El Niño, the warm surface layer can reduce the arrival of cold, nutrient-rich water. Food becomes harder to find, reproduction can collapse and large numbers of animals may starve.

Researchers interviewed by the Associated Press expressed alarm over projections suggesting sea temperatures could rise about 2.2 degrees Celsius above normal around the islands.

The danger also reaches the land.

Heavy rainfall can accelerate the spread of invasive plants, threatening native Scalesia forests and Opuntia cacti. Conservation workers are collecting seeds, operating plant nurseries and removing invasive species in an effort to protect vegetation found nowhere else on Earth.

This is one of the clearest examples of what “super” strength can mean. Ocean warming does not simply produce unusual weather. It can reorganize entire food systems.

The food-price connection

A very strong El Niño also represents a threat to global agriculture.

The climate pattern can contribute to drought across parts of Southeast Asia, southern Africa, Australia, India and Central America. Other regions, including portions of South America and the southern United States, may experience excessive rain.

Both extremes can hurt production.

Drought can limit irrigation supplies, reduce crop yields and raise the cost of feeding livestock. Flooding can destroy fields, delay planting, block roads and damage stored grain. Excess moisture near harvest can promote mold and reduce crop quality.

Coffee, cocoa, rice, palm oil, sugar and wheat are among the commodities that traders will watch closely as the event develops.

Not every price increase during El Niño is caused by weather. Fuel costs, fertilizer prices, export restrictions, labor shortages, currency changes and corporate decisions can also influence grocery bills.

Yet El Niño can create the initial supply disruption that sends agricultural markets higher. Futures prices may move before crops fail because traders react to seasonal forecasts and early production estimates.

American shoppers may eventually encounter the effects in the price of coffee, chocolate, cooking oil, rice or products that depend on imported ingredients. The size of those increases will depend on which producing regions are affected and how long the event persists.

El Niño is arriving on top of global warming

El Niño is a natural climate cycle. Human-caused climate change is a long-term warming trend. The two are different, but they can reinforce each other.

During El Niño, the tropical Pacific releases large amounts of heat into the atmosphere. That temporary natural warming now occurs on top of decades of greenhouse gas accumulation.

The result can be an increased likelihood of global temperature records.

NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information reported that August 2026 was the warmest August in records dating to 1850. The global surface temperature was 1.32 degrees Celsius above the 20th-century average, surpassing the previous August record shared by 2023 and 2024.

The World Meteorological Organization’s seasonal forecast projects above-normal temperatures across nearly all major land regions during September through November.

El Niño did not create the planet’s long-term warming trend. Nor should every heat record be attributed solely to El Niño. Greenhouse gases have raised the baseline, while El Niño adds a powerful short-term pulse.

That combination is what makes the current event particularly concerning.

The public-health risks

Drought and flooding can quickly become health emergencies.

Drought can damage food production and concentrate pollutants in shrinking water supplies. Extreme heat can increase dehydration, cardiovascular stress and heat-related deaths. Floods can contaminate drinking water and displace families from their homes.

Warm, wet conditions can also alter mosquito habitats, while damaged sanitation systems can increase the risk of waterborne diseases.

The World Health Organization has identified heat illness, malnutrition, cholera and other infectious diseases as potential health consequences associated with El Niño-related disruption.

The greatest risks often fall on communities least able to prepare. A wealthy city may respond to flooding with pumps, emergency shelters and rapid repairs. A low-income or conflict-affected region may face the same rainfall with damaged roads, limited medical supplies and unsafe drinking water.

For that reason, the coming El Niño is not merely a weather story. It is also a test of public infrastructure and inequality.

What people should do now

The “super” label is not a reason for panic. It is a reason to pay closer attention to local forecasts and prepare for risks that already exist.

Households in flood-prone areas should review insurance coverage, clear gutters and drainage areas, protect important records and identify evacuation routes. People living near wildfire burn scars should sign up for local debris-flow and flash-flood warnings.

Families should maintain a basic emergency supply that includes water, shelf-stable food, necessary medication, flashlights, batteries and a way to receive alerts during an electrical outage.

Travelers should anticipate that a more active southern storm track could disrupt flights and road travel during the winter. Farmers and water managers should monitor seasonal guidance from regional climate offices rather than relying on national generalizations.

Preparation should match local vulnerability. El Niño will not produce the same danger everywhere.

The bottom line

El Niño has leveled up.

NOAA says there is now a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event during the coming fall and winter, along with a 75 percent chance that its strength between October and December could exceed previous events in records dating to 1950.

Those probabilities justify serious concern, but they do not justify certainty about every regional outcome.

A Super El Niño is not one enormous storm crossing the world. It is an exceptionally strong reorganization of the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere, capable of shifting weather patterns thousands of miles away.

Its effects may appear as flooding in one country, drought in another, a warmer American winter, reduced mountain snow, damaged fisheries or higher food prices. In many places, the most consequential impacts will depend on whether governments and households use the advance warning to prepare.

The Pacific is providing that warning now. The next several months will reveal how forcefully the atmosphere responds.

Reporting and interview disclosure

This article was independently reported from official NOAA measurements, World Meteorological Organization forecasts, World Health Organization guidance and interviews published by the Associated Press.

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The Pacific Just Flipped the Climate Alarm: What a “Super El Niño” Could Mean for Winter, Food and Extreme Weather