The tropical Pacific is sending a consequential signal ahead of winter, but anyone hoping for a clean answer about snow should resist the easiest headline.

Published at 5:25 p.m. EDT

El Niño is strengthening, and the latest public guidance from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says there is a greater than 90 percent chance that it will become a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026 to 2027. The World Meteorological Organization has also warned that the event is likely to remain influential into 2027, raising the stakes for weather agencies, water managers, farmers, utilities, ski operators, insurers and families planning holiday travel.

That does not mean every snowy city will get less snow, nor does it guarantee a banner season in the mountains of California or the Southwest. El Niño changes the odds by reorganizing large-scale atmospheric circulation. It does not write the forecast for every storm.

The most defensible early read is this: the southern tier of the United States generally has better odds of a wetter winter, the northern tier generally leans warmer, and the Pacific Northwest often faces a higher risk of reduced snowfall, particularly at lower elevations. Between those broad zones, the snow outcome can be maddeningly sensitive to a few degrees of temperature and the exact path of individual storms.

For a season with a potentially very strong El Niño, the difference between rain and snow may be the central story.

The Pacific signal is already commanding attention

El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, a recurring interaction between the tropical Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere. During an event, unusually warm water in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific changes where tropical thunderstorms develop. Those changes can ripple outward, altering pressure patterns and the position and strength of the jet streams that guide storms across North America.

NOAA announced in June that El Niño had formed and was expected to strengthen. By August 13, the agency’s Climate Prediction Center said the probability of a very strong event during fall and winter had climbed above 90 percent. NOAA’s next monthly ENSO diagnostic discussion is scheduled for September 10, so the outlook available at publication time is still the August assessment.

The timing matters because El Niño events commonly reach their greatest strength late in the calendar year. Their most recognizable effects on United States weather also tend to emerge during winter, when the tropical Pacific can influence the storm track over many weeks.

The World Meteorological Organization’s September update widened the lens beyond the United States. The agency said the strengthening event raises the risk of disruptive weather into 2027 and emphasized the value of early warnings. That international concern is important context, but it should not be confused with a promise of a particular snow total in Boston, Denver or Seattle.

El Niño moves the storm highways

In a typical El Niño winter, the subtropical jet stream becomes more active across the southern United States. That can steer more Pacific moisture toward California and the Southwest, then carry storms along the Gulf Coast and toward the Southeast or East Coast. Farther north, the polar jet is often displaced in a way that limits the frequency or persistence of arctic air across parts of the northern United States.

Snow requires two ingredients to overlap: moisture and sufficiently cold air. El Niño can increase the first ingredient in some places while undermining the second. A moisture-rich coastal storm is not a snowstorm if the lowest mile of the atmosphere is too warm. In mountain country, the same storm can produce heavy snow at high elevations, rain in valleys and a rapidly changing snow line in between.

This is why seasonal precipitation maps cannot be read as snowfall maps. Wetter does not necessarily mean snowier. Warmer does not mean snow-free. A region can finish a warm winter with above-normal snow if several major storms arrive during brief cold windows. It can also endure repeated cold spells but record little snow because the storm track stays away.

Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies: the clearest downside risk

Among the more consistent historical El Niño signals is a tilt toward warmer conditions and lower snowfall in parts of the Inland Northwest. The National Weather Service office in Spokane says El Niño winters often bring above-normal temperatures and below-normal snowfall because Pacific storms are more likely to pass south of the region while the coldest air remains bottled farther north and east.

The local record shows both the value and the limits of that signal. The Weather Service’s study of El Niño seasons found average snowfall below normal at many Inland Northwest sites. Spokane, for example, averaged 34.4 inches during the El Niño winters included in the analysis, or 72 percent of normal. Yet one El Niño winter, 1968 to 1969, produced 78 inches there. Several others delivered less than 20 inches.

For the 2026 to 2027 season, that history points to elevated risk for lower-elevation snow and for water storage that depends on a durable mountain snowpack. Ski areas high enough to remain below freezing during storms may fare better than nearby towns. Still, a warmer seasonal baseline can lift the snow line, increase the share of precipitation that falls as rain, and encourage earlier melting.

That distinction matters economically. Snowpack is not merely a recreational asset. It functions as natural water storage, releasing runoff during spring and summer. A wet winter can therefore be disappointing from a water-supply perspective if too much moisture arrives as rain or if the snow melts prematurely.

California and the Southwest: more storms do not guarantee a blockbuster

El Niño is often associated with a stronger southern storm track, giving California, Arizona, New Mexico and parts of the southern Rockies increased odds of a wetter season. That setup can favor substantial mountain snow when storms are cold enough and aimed at the right watersheds.

But the phrase “El Niño winter” has acquired more predictive power in popular culture than the science supports. Some strong events have brought memorable storms to California. Others have distributed moisture unevenly, sent the most active track elsewhere or arrived with snow levels high enough to produce heavy rain below the peaks.

The practical forecast for the Sierra Nevada and southern Rockies is therefore conditional. More moisture could create repeated opportunities for snow at elevation. A warm atmosphere could simultaneously reduce snow accumulation at lower and middle elevations. Reservoir managers will be watching not only total precipitation but also snow-water equivalent, the amount of water held in the snowpack, and the pace at which that storage changes through the season.

For travelers and ski communities, the exact elevation of the rain-snow line may matter more than a statewide precipitation outlook. A single warm atmospheric river can add feet of snow near the crest while washing away shallow cover lower down.

The Upper Midwest and Great Lakes: warmth is the stronger signal

Across the Upper Midwest, the historical temperature tendency is more reliable than the snowfall tendency. A National Weather Service analysis of 10 of the strongest El Niño events since 1900 found winter temperatures near or above normal across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. The same analysis found that seasonal snowfall in the Upper Mississippi River Valley averaged as much as 10 inches below normal during strong events, but roughly one-third of those winters still produced above-normal snow.

That wide spread is a warning against false precision. The study found about a 45-inch difference between the lowest and highest seasonal snowfall outcomes in its regional record. A seasonal climate influence can tip the scale without deciding the result.

The Great Lakes add another complication. Lake-effect snow depends on local wind direction, lake temperature, ice cover and the depth of cold air passing over relatively warm water. El Niño may favor a warmer and sometimes drier broad pattern, but a well-placed outbreak of cold air can still generate intense snow bands. Those narrow bands can bury one community while leaving another a short drive away with much less.

The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast: high uncertainty, high impact

The East is where the popular El Niño narrative most often breaks down.

An active subtropical jet can supply moisture and help coastal storms form. If cold air is established, that can produce major snow from the central Appalachians through the Mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast. If cold air retreats, the same storm may bring rain near Interstate 95, mixed precipitation inland and heavy snow only at higher elevations or farther north.

Historical data from the National Weather Service’s Baltimore and Washington office illustrate the split. Of seven strong El Niño winters since 1950 in that local analysis, four were associated with well-above-normal snowfall. The other three had virtually no snow. Moderate El Niño winters, including the record-setting Mid-Atlantic winter of 2009 to 2010, have also produced spectacular totals, but no single event is a template for the next one.

Shorter-term patterns can overpower the seasonal background. The North Atlantic Oscillation can help determine whether cold air and blocking high pressure are positioned favorably for East Coast snow. The Pacific-North American pattern, the polar vortex, the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the timing of individual waves in the jet stream also influence storm development. These ingredients cannot be forecast with useful detail months in advance.

So the honest Northeast outlook is not “snowy” or “snowless.” A strong El Niño may create opportunities for moisture-rich storms, while a generally warmer climate and poor cold-air timing may turn some of those opportunities into rain. The seasonal total could be dominated by one or two events.

The South: wetter often means rain, with an ice caveat

From Texas to Florida and the Southeast coast, El Niño tends to favor a cooler, wetter and stormier winter pattern relative to local norms. The National Weather Service notes that Florida typically receives above-average cool-season precipitation during El Niño, with greater flood and severe-weather concerns.

Snow remains uncommon across much of the Deep South because cold air is usually the limiting ingredient. Yet stronger southern storm activity can raise the stakes when shallow arctic air does reach the region. In that situation, freezing rain or sleet can become a more serious transportation and power-grid hazard than snow.

For southern residents, the useful preparation message is not to expect a snowy winter. It is to recognize that a wetter storm track combined with a brief freeze can create outsized disruption in places with limited winter-weather equipment.

A hotter climate changes the conversion from water to snow

El Niño is a natural climate pattern, but it is unfolding in a world warmer than it was during many of the historical events used for comparison. That background warming does not erase El Niño’s circulation effects. It changes the starting conditions.

At locations where winter temperatures normally sit well below freezing, added moisture can still produce heavy snow. Near the freezing point, however, modest warming can convert snow to rain, produce wetter and denser snow, shorten the season, or push accumulation uphill. The effect is especially important during early and late winter and at lower mountain elevations.

This is also why comparisons with famous past El Niño seasons require care. The tropical Pacific may reach a similar index value, but the surrounding oceans, land temperatures, sea ice and long-term atmospheric baseline are not identical. Event strength is only one variable.

What we can say now, and what must wait

As of September 8, forecasters have high confidence that El Niño will be a major influence during the coming winter. They have substantially less confidence in snowfall for any specific city.

The broadest signals support several planning assumptions:

The northern tier is more likely to experience a warmer winter overall, which can reduce the frequency of snow or the durability of snow cover.
The Pacific Northwest and parts of the northern Rockies face increased odds of below-normal snowfall and diminished lower-elevation snowpack.
California, the Southwest and the southern Rockies may receive more storm opportunities, but snow totals will depend heavily on elevation and temperature.
The Upper Midwest often leans warmer during strong El Niño events, while snowfall remains variable and locally influenced.
The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast retain the potential for major snowstorms, but the seasonal outcome depends on cold-air placement and shorter-lived atmospheric patterns that cannot yet be resolved.
The South is more likely to see increased cool-season rain and storminess than widespread snow, though ice risk can rise sharply when cold air overlaps with moisture.

The next useful checkpoints will be NOAA’s September ENSO update, the federal seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks later in the fall, and then the shorter-range forecasts that begin resolving cold-air supply and storm tracks. Skiers, school districts and holiday travelers should treat any exact snowfall map circulating months in advance as entertainment unless it clearly communicates probability and uncertainty.

El Niño loads the atmosphere’s dice. It does not determine every roll.

That is the blunt takeaway for winter 2026 to 2027. A potentially exceptional Pacific event is likely to shape the season, creating a warmer northern bias, a more active southern storm corridor and real regional snowpack risks. Yet the snow outside any one front door will still be decided storm by storm, at the intersection of moisture, cold air, elevation and timing.

Reporting note

This article is original analysis by Karla Alvarado based on current public forecasts, historical snowfall records and agency statements.

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