Global Oil Stuck Above $100 as Goldman Warns the Pain Could Last Longer Than Markets Hope

Global oil prices have pushed back into triple digits, and the latest warning from Goldman Sachs suggests this may not be a short lived shock. The bank raised its forecast for Brent crude in March and April 2026 to an average of $110 a barrel, up from an earlier estimate of $98, citing extended disruption through the Strait of Hormuz and renewed strategic stockpiling. Reuters also reported that Brent had recently surged past $119 a barrel after Iranian attacks on energy infrastructure and broader Gulf supply disruptions.

The immediate cause is the Middle East war and the chokehold it has placed on one of the world’s most important energy arteries. Reuters reported that the conflict has removed an estimated 12 million barrels a day from global supply in physical markets, while Breakingviews described around 14 million barrels a day as stranded by Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. That is why the current rally does not look like a routine geopolitical premium. It looks more like a structural supply shock hitting the market’s core transport route.

Goldman’s message is notable not because it expects prices to stay at crisis highs forever, but because it sees meaningful upside risk lasting well beyond the next few weeks. Reuters reported on March 19 that Goldman flagged upside risks to oil prices not only in the near term but into 2027, warning that prolonged disruption in Hormuz and sustained Middle East production losses could keep prices elevated. In a more extreme scenario involving a severe ten week disruption and a persistent loss of 2 million barrels a day, Goldman said Brent could peak at $135 a barrel.

That does not mean Goldman’s formal base case is for oil to remain above $100 for years. In fact, Reuters reported on March 23 that Goldman’s longer term outlook still sees Brent stabilizing around $80 through 2027, with West Texas Intermediate near $75, assuming supply and demand gradually rebalance. But the bank is simultaneously warning that the risks are skewed upward and that the market may remain far more sensitive to disruption than investors had expected before the war. The practical takeaway is that triple digit oil may not be permanent, but neither is a quick return to cheap energy guaranteed.

That distinction matters because real world energy markets are already behaving as though the disruption could last. Reuters reported that physical crude and fuel cargoes have smashed record highs, with Dubai crude reaching $166.80 a barrel and European jet fuel climbing above $220 a barrel as refiners and traders scramble for replacement supplies. Those figures show that the damage is not confined to futures screens in London or New York. It is spreading through the actual barrels and refined products that airlines, shippers, and power systems need right now.

The fear is that this crisis could create a more durable change in behavior across governments and industry. Reuters Breakingviews argued that hoarding may become the new normal as countries rethink energy security and build bigger stockpiles, much as China has done for years. If that happens, the market may face not only a wartime shortage but a long period in which buyers compete to rebuild reserves at the same time, keeping a floor under prices even after the worst fighting eases.

That is one reason higher oil could linger longer than consumers expect. Even if military escalation slows, damaged infrastructure, disrupted shipping patterns, and state stockpiling can keep supply chains tight for months. Reuters also reported that analysts see U.S. drivers facing pain at the pump well beyond the immediate conflict, with government crude and gasoline forecasts revised upward through 2027. In other words, the market may not need a total shutdown in Hormuz to remain expensive. It may only need a drawn out period of uncertainty and partial disruption.

The consequences stretch far beyond gas stations. Reuters reported that United Airlines is cutting flights as it braces for oil above $100 through 2027, and European airline executives have warned that higher fuel costs will translate into pressure on fares and profitability. Higher oil also clouds the earnings outlook for major companies and raises the odds of stickier inflation, which helps explain why financial markets have become increasingly sensitive to every new development in the Gulf.

What makes this episode especially unsettling is that the world entered 2026 expecting something very different. Reuters noted that at the start of the year, the consensus view on oil was relatively bearish. Goldman itself had earlier raised second quarter forecasts only to levels in the 70s. The speed with which forecasts have been revised upward shows how quickly geopolitical conflict can overwhelm conventional supply and demand assumptions.

So is oil really stuck in triple digits for years. The most careful answer is that Goldman is not formally forecasting that exact outcome as its central case, but it is warning that the conditions for prolonged high prices are now real and that upside risks extend into 2027. With Brent already above $100, physical cargoes at record highs, and Hormuz still at the center of the crisis, the world oil market has entered a phase where triple digit prices can no longer be dismissed as a temporary panic. They have become a credible medium term threat.